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Hypothesis Testing for mean when σ is known


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Definations

  • Hypothesis Testing: A statistical method used to make inferences or draw conclusions about a population based on sample data. It involves testing an assumption (hypothesis) about a population parameter.
  • Null Hypothesis (H₀): The default assumption that there is no effect or no difference. It is the hypothesis that the test seeks to nullify.
  • Alternative Hypothesis (H₁ or Ha): is a statement that indicates the presence of an effect or difference. It is what you want to test for. For example, H₁ might state that there is a difference between two population means.
  • Significance Level (α): is the probability of rejecting the null hypothesis when it is actually true (Type I error). Common significance levels are 0.05, 0.01, and 0.10.
  • P-Value: is the probability of observing the test results under the null hypothesis. It helps determine whether to reject the null hypothesis. A p-value less than the significance level indicates strong evidence against H₀.
  • Critical Value:is a threshold that defines the boundary for rejecting the null hypothesis. It is based on the significance level and the distribution of the test statistic.




General Steps

  1. Formulate Hypotheses:
    • The null and alternative hypothesis for each tail stated as follow as:
      • \(H_0:μ = μ₀ : μ ≥ μ₀ : μ ≤ μ₀\)
        \(H_1: μ ≠ μ₀ : μ < μ₀ : μ > μ₀\)

        The inequality sign in the Alternative hypothesis indicates the type of tests. i.e., \(H_1\): \(μ₁ ≠ μ₂ \) (two-tailed), \(μ₁ > μ₂ \) (right-tailed), or \(μ₁ < μ₂ \) (left-tailed).


  2. Specify the significance Level (α)
    • The common α's are 10%, 5%, and 1%. This determines the threshold for rejecting H₀.

  3. Choose the Test statistic: ,
    • Depends on the sample size, data distribution, and whether the population standard deviation is known.
    • Common tests include Z-test, t-test, chi-square test, and ANOVA.
    • In this case we will use z-test statistsics
    • \[ z = \frac{\bar{x} - \mu_0}{\frac{δ}{\sqrt{n}}} \]

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  5. Determine the critical value of z for the Desired Confidence Level:
    • Significance Levels and Z-Critical Values

      Use the table below to find Z-critical values based on significance levels (α) for both two-tailed and one-tailed tests:

      Significance Level (α) \(z_{\alpha/2}\) \(z_{\alpha}\)
      0.1 1.645 1.282
      0.05 1.960 1.645
      0.01 2.576 2.326
      N/A N/A

      where:
      α is a ssignificance level.
      \(z_{\alpha}\) is a one-tailed z-critical Value.
      \(z_{\alpha/2}\) is a two tailed z-critical value

      Feel free to provide a signifcance level in a given space, then I’ll calculate the corresponding \(z_{\alpha/2}\) and \(z_{\alpha}\) for you only!


  6. Decision:
    • Reject H₀ if the test statistic falls in the rejection region or if the p-value is less than α.
    • Fail to reject H₀ if the test statistic does not fall in the rejection region or if the p-value is greater than α.
    • In general the decision will be made by comparing the \(z_{\bar{x}}\) to the \(z_{\alpha}\).
    • If | \(z_{\bar{x}}\) | > |\(z_{\alpha}\)|, reject the \(H_0\).
      If | \(z_{\bar{x}}\) | ≤ |\(z_{\alpha}\)|, fail to reject the \(H_0\).
  7. Draw the conclusin:
    • When interpreting the results of a hypothesis test, it’s essential to consider both the claim being tested and the decision made. Here’s a step-by-step guide to drawing conclusions based on the decision to reject or not reject the null hypothesis (\(H_0\)):
    • Follow this step to draw a conclusion
      • Identify the Claims:
      • Null Hypothesis \(H_0\) This represents the default position or the claim being tested.
      • Alternative Hypothesis \(H_1\) This is the claim you are trying to find evidence for.

        Make a Decisions:
      • Reject \(H_0\): Evidence suggests that \(H_0\) is not true.
      • Do Not Reject \(H_0\): Evidence is insufficient to conclude \(H_0\) is not true.

        Draw a conclusion:
        When the claim is \(H_0\):
      • Reject \(H_0\): There is evidence to rejcet the claim.
      • Do Not Reject \(H_0\): There is not enough evidences to rejct the claim.

      • When the claim is is \(H_1\):
      • Reject \(H_0\): There is evidence to support the claim.
      • Do Not Reject \(H_0\): There is not enough evidences to support the claim.


Common Errors:

Numbered and Bulleted List
  1. Type I Error (False Positive):
    • Rejecting H₀ when it is true. The probability of making this error is α.
  2. Type II Error (False Negative):
    • Failing to reject H₀ when H₁ is true. The probability of making this error is β.
  3. Misinterpreting the P-Value:
    • The p-value does not measure the probability that H₀ is true, but rather the probability of observing the data if H₀ is true.
  4. Overlooking Assumptions:
    • Many tests have assumptions (e.g., normality, equal variances). Violating these assumptions can affect the validity of the test results.
  5. Sample Size Issues:
    • Small sample sizes can lead to inaccurate estimates and increased risk of Type II errors.


Additional Tips

  1. Understand Your Data:
    • Make sure to understand the characteristics of your data and choose the appropriate test based on the data type and distribution.
  2. Check Assumptions:
    • Verify that the data meets the assumptions required for the statistical test you are using.
  3. Report Effect Size:
    • Alongside p-values, report the effect size to provide a measure of the magnitude of the observed effect.
  4. Be Cautious with the Significance Level:
    • While α = 0.05 is common, adjust the significance level based on the context and consequences of Type I and Type II errors.

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